Business Forecast Essay -- Business Forecasting Research Essays

Business ForecastThis Paper examines and comp bes various anticipate techniques use for qualitative and quantitative business forecasting and their use in Firstlogic Inc., to forecast the fill under conditions of uncertainness. Time series and Delphi forecasting methods are considered for this research to tax their ability to make effective decisions regarding the future.Business soothsayingBusiness forecasting is the process of studying historical performance for the purpose of using the fellowship gained to project future business conditions so that decisions wad be do today that will aid in the achievement of established goals. calculate plays a crucial role in todays uncertain global marketplace. Forecasting is traditionally either qualitative or quantitative, with each offering ad hoc advantages and disadvantages.Qualitative and Quantitative Forecasting Techniques Forecasting lavatory be classified advertisement into qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative tec hniques are subjective or judgmental and are based on estimates and opinions. The Delphi technique, a common form of qualitative forecasting, allows experts to form an effective forecast under conditions of extreme uncertainty. Time?s series forecasting, a quantitative technique, uses a statistical analysis of past gross revenue in order to effectively predict future outcomes, but can be limited under conditions of uncertainty (Chase, 2003, p.364). Business forecasting can be used in a wide variety of contexts, and by a wide variety of businesses. For example, effective forecasting can obtain sales based on attendance at a conduct show, or the customer demand for products and services (Business and stinting Forecasting, p.1). One of the approximately pregnant assumptions of business forecasters is that the past acts as an important guide for the future. It is important to note that forecasters must consider a number of new information, including promptly changing economic conditions and globalization, when creating business forecasts based on past sales. globalisation and economic slowdown has made businesses subject to a great megabucks of uncertainty. In this clipping of rapid change, economies worldwide change rapidly, new markets devote up and old ones change, and demand for products is often uncertain. As such, businesses must be flexible and adaptable in the types of methods that they use... ...forecasts. Given the high degree of uncertainty in todays marketplace, qualitative forecasting techniques like the Delphi technique may protagonist Firstlogic to better-forecast future sales.ConclusionIn conclusion, business forecasting methods must be used in order to fit current conditions of uncertainty. Delphi technique and time series forecasting both are valuable forecasting tools when used in the right circumstance. The Delphi technique is useful for short-term forecasts therefore, it is often a more valuable tool for business forecasting dur ing conditions of uncertainty.ReferencesUniversity of Phoenix(Ed.).(2003) Operations prudence for competitive advantageUniversity of Phoenix custom edition e-text. New York McGraw-Hill. Retrieved February 01, 2005, from university of phoenix, Resource, MGT554- operations management website https//mycampus.phoenix.edu/secure/resource/resource.aspBusiness and Economic Forecasting. Retrieved February 24, 2005, from http//www.sbeusers.csuhayward.edu/acassuto/econ3551/summary/chapter6.htmNamvar, Bob . (2000). Economic Forecasting. Retrieved February 24, 2005, from http//gbr.pepperdine.edu/001/forecast.html